Natalie Solent

Politics, news, libertarianism, Science Fiction, religion, sewing. You got a problem, bud? I like sewing.

E-mail: nataliesolent-at-aol-dot-com (I assume it's OK to quote senders by name.)

Back to main blog

RSS thingy

Jane's Blogosphere: blogtrack for Natalie Solent.


( 'Nother Solent is this blog's good twin. Same words, searchable archives, RSS feed. Provided by a benefactor, to whom thanks.
I also sometimes write for Samizdata and Biased BBC.)

The Old Comrades:

November 2001 December 2001 January 2002 February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002 June 2002 July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 November 2002 December 2002 January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 August 2007 October 2007 February 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 March 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 October 2009 January 2010 March 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 April 2011 June 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Shy Labourites. Jim Mangles writes:
You say, "The explanation (why opinion polls have underestimated Tory support for years) is that the media, talking heads, academics, comedians and the like, portray the Conservatives, or Republicans in the US, as the party of those who are unfeeling and/or uneducated."

I'm sure a similar effect will become apparent here after the next general election, but my bet is that this time it will be the Labour vote that's underestimated. This is because "the media, talking heads, academics, comedians and the like, portray" Tony Blair as a reckless liar who got us into an evil war in Iraq, but in the privacy of the polling booth most people, faced with the prospect of Michael Howard as Prime Minister, won't turn out to care all that much about Iraq.

Could be, could be. We might have the novelty of an election in which neither main candidate is endorsed by the elite. However the obvious difference messing up the Bush-to-Blair (or John Howard-to-Blair) parallel is that however angry the talking heads are with Blair they still like him better than any Tory ever born.

The prospect of Michael Howard as Prime Minister reminds me of how and when I first got to know his name. Michael Howard was Home Secretary in 1996 when Thomas Hamilton massacred sixteen primary schoolchildren and their teacher in Dunblane. He introduced stringent laws against handguns that stopped a little short of banning them all. For a while angry shooters filled the shooting press with proclamations of their intention to vote Labour. One or two supportive Labour MPs assisted them in their delusions and may even have shared them. Naturally, one of the first acts of the Labour government elected a few months later was to institute a complete ban.

The position of an anti-war left wing voter now is like the situation of a pro-gun voter then. However, as Mr Mangles points out, it's all a minority pursuit. Most voters don't care all that much about Iraq and of those who do care there may even be a significant bloc of voters who are more inclined to vote for Blair because of his stance on Iraq. Stranger things have happened.